You’re wagering badly

Here’s an easier way to make the right bet on Final Jeopardy

Hey Jeopardy fans!  You players are so smart when it comes to “questioning answers”.  Yet sometimes so dumb when it’s time to make the final wager.

Sure, you know how to bet when you are in first place.

But when you go into Final Jeopardy in second and third place, your incorrect bets often cost you the win.  Sometimes you miss an opportunity to win whether your Final Jeopardy answer is right or wrong!

You’d be shocked how often this happens (like, every day or two).

Here’s an example from 10/14/20.  The names are changed and amounts are rounded.

Ann goes into Final Jeopardy with $19,000

Bob has $14,000

Carol has $2,000

Now imagine that you are Bob.

You can’t win if Ann answers Final Jeopardy correctly.  She’s going to bet enough to beat you.  Your only chance to win is if she is wrong!  Her total will drop to $10,000 (see why below).  You can beat her by simply betting zero or really anything less than $4,000.  You don’t even have to get Final Jeopardy right!

On this day like many, many others, Bob bet all $14,000.  He was unlucky that Ann answered correctly and won the game.  If she had been wrong, he could have guaranteed a win with a small or zero wager on Final Jeopardy – whether his answer was right or wrong.  His “bet it all” wager needlessly risked a loss.

Further, Bob might have unnecessarily lost to Carol who could double her score to $4000!  I hope you see how illogical that is.  If it were only Bob and Carol going into Final Jeopardy with $14,000 and $2,000, I’m sure he would have bet less than $10,000.

The best wager is not hard to calculate. Here are the three steps:

Step one

Figure out where the players ahead of you are going to be if they answer incorrectly.  I’ve done the math* so you don’t have to.  The answer is two times their lead over the next highest score.  In this example, Ann has a $5,000 lead over Bob and will fall to $10,000 or below.

Step two

Figure out where the players behind you will be if they answer correctly.  You already know this one.  Carol can double to $4,000.

Step three 

Those two amounts are your targets. Bet enough to reach the target(s) above your score, but not any more that might cause you to fall below a target that is less than your score. If both targets are less than your score, the safest wager is zero.

Bob has $14,000 going into Final Jeopardy and must stay above the $10,000 target.  If he bets less than $4,000 he is guaranteed to win if Ann answers incorrectly (his only shot).

That’s it!

Ready for a test from June 4, 2020?

Aiden has $15,000

Brianna has $14,000

Caleb has $12,000

Aiden is likely to bet at least $13,000 to double Brianna’s score.   If his response is incorrect, he will fall to $2,000.  Note that $2,000 is two times his lead over Brianna. 

Brianna should think “I need Aiden to be wrong and fall to $2,000.  Caleb might double to $24,000.  I need to bet at least $10,000 to reach that target but not more than $12,000 or I will fall below Aiden.”

Caleb can win only if both Aiden and Brianna fail to answer correctly.  In that case, their totals will fall to $2,000 and $4,000.  If Caleb bets less than $8,000 (keeping his score above $4,000), he will win even with an incorrect response!  He might as well bet zero to remain at $12,000 in case the others make smaller than expected bets.

What actually happened on this day?  Alas all three players had the wrong answer on Final Jeopardy.

Aiden bet only $7,500, weirdly not enough to double Brianna, and his score fell from $15,000 to $7,500.

Brianna bet $6,000, also weirdly not enough to double Caleb’s score.  Her incorrect response left her with $8,000.

Caleb committed the worst sin, betting $6,000 and falling to $6,000.  If he had bet zero – the only logical bet– he would have finished with $12,000 and won the day.

Ouch.

10/15/20 Update: It happened again today!  The scores going into the final were 12000, 11400, and 2000.  Why did the 2nd place player bet 8700?  They all got Final Jeopardy wrong.  She would have won by following the three rules and betting anything less than $7400.

 * If for example one player has $8000 and the other has $6000, the leading player will typically bet enough to at least double the other player’s score – in this case $4000.  If he gets Final Jeopardy wrong, his score will fall to $4000 and that always works out to two times the difference between their scores.

This formula doesn’t work in a runaway game where the leading score is more than double the next highest score.  In that case, use these rules to play for second place.

This website is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or operated by Jeopardy Productions, Inc. or by The Jeopardy Fan which has, by the way, complete coverage of the game show including a history of scores.  Check it out.